How to calculate a SureBet

A Sure bet is an opportunity that arises when the distribution of odds accepted by different bookmakers on the same sports match will give you a guaranteed winning no matter what the outcome of the sports match.

Suppose that you want to bet on the Italy vs. Germany soccer match on home/draw/away outcomes. To calculate a sure bet you want to do this with different bookmakers in order to get the best odds for each outcome.

Italy vs. Germany
1 (home) 2.60 (Bookmaker “A”)
X (draw) 3.20 (Bookmaker “B”)
2 (away) 3.90 (Bookmaker “C”)

The odd 2.60 means that a bet for 1 EUR gives you 2.60 EUR in case of a home winning.

1 Euro x 2.60 (home) = 2.60 Euro
1 Euro x 3.20 (draw) = 3.20 Euro
1 Euro x 3.90 (away) = 3.90 Euro

As you will notice above, you will spend a total of 3 Euro (1 Euro on each outcome) but will make a profit only if the outcome is not home.

Now let’s see if these odds will permit a Sure bet.

First we have to calculate the cost of each odd. To do this we need to divide 1 Euro by the odd.

1 Euro / 2.60 (home) = 0.38 Euro
1 Euro / 3.20 (draw) = 0.31 Euro
1 Euro / 3.90 (away) = 0.26 Euro

Total cost (0.38 + 0.31 + 0.26) = 0.95 Euro

This calculation tells us that we will need 0.95 Euro to be sure to get 1 Euro. If the result of the calculation is below 1 (0.95 < 1), then you have a sure bet!

That means if you would bet 0.38 Euro on home, 0.31 Euro on draw, and 0.26 Euro on away, you can be sure that your income will be 1 Euro.

0.38 Euro x 2.60 (home) = 1 Euro
0.31 Euro x 3.20 (draw) = 1 Euro
0.26 Euro x 3.90 (away) = 1 Euro

Total cost = 0.95 Euro
Total winnings = 1 Euro (only one outcome is possible)
Profit = 0.05 Euro or 5%*

*if you do the math without rounding, the profit is 0.0487 Euro or 4.87%