Wednesday, September 3, 2008

How to calculate a SureBet

A Sure bet is an opportunity that arises when the distribution of odds accepted by different bookmakers on the same sports match will give you a guaranteed winning no matter what the outcome of the sports match.

Suppose that you want to bet on the Italy vs. Germany soccer match on home/draw/away outcomes. To calculate a sure bet you want to do this with different bookmakers in order to get the best odds for each outcome.

Italy vs. Germany
1 (home) 2.60 (Bookmaker “A”)
X (draw) 3.20 (Bookmaker “B”)
2 (away) 3.90 (Bookmaker “C”)

The odd 2.60 means that a bet for 1 EUR gives you 2.60 EUR in case of a home winning.

1 Euro x 2.60 (home) = 2.60 Euro
1 Euro x 3.20 (draw) = 3.20 Euro
1 Euro x 3.90 (away) = 3.90 Euro

As you will notice above, you will spend a total of 3 Euro (1 Euro on each outcome) but will make a profit only if the outcome is not home.

Now let’s see if these odds will permit a Sure bet.

First we have to calculate the cost of each odd. To do this we need to divide 1 Euro by the odd.

1 Euro / 2.60 (home) = 0.38 Euro
1 Euro / 3.20 (draw) = 0.31 Euro
1 Euro / 3.90 (away) = 0.26 Euro

Total cost (0.38 + 0.31 + 0.26) = 0.95 Euro

This calculation tells us that we will need 0.95 Euro to be sure to get 1 Euro. If the result of the calculation is below 1 (0.95 < 1), then you have a sure bet!

That means if you would bet 0.38 Euro on home, 0.31 Euro on draw, and 0.26 Euro on away, you can be sure that your income will be 1 Euro.

0.38 Euro x 2.60 (home) = 1 Euro
0.31 Euro x 3.20 (draw) = 1 Euro
0.26 Euro x 3.90 (away) = 1 Euro

Total cost = 0.95 Euro
Total winnings = 1 Euro (only one outcome is possible)
Profit = 0.05 Euro or 5%*

*if you do the math without rounding, the profit is 0.0487 Euro or 4.87%

7 comments:

Unknown said...

Great Explanation. Thanks for the clarification. You just made it very easy to understand. Thanks again!

Unknown said...

that was very simple and clear explanation thnk u

Martynas said...

Great explanation, but I did not understand why profit is 4.87%.
If I invest 0.95 EUR and take my winning 1 EUR, profit is 0.05 EUR.
0.05/0.95 = 5.26%.
Why is that I get different profit percentage?

fillikir72518 said...

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Unknown said...

Thank you Mr. i can now bet successful

Anton73 said...

Здесь есть рейтинги и обзоры сканеров вилок.

Mic said...

You don't have to do this manually. There are surebets (surebets) scanner online available to everyone.

Anyway i think that arbitrage betting is amazing and only winning betting strategy.